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Chair of the National Emergency Briefing

"There is clear evidence that emergency action will strengthen our national and economic resilience and improve lives. But first, our politicians need to see strong support from the public. The National Emergency Briefing is designed to help create a societal tipping point towards the genuine emergency action now needed. You can help make this happen."

  "If we've crossed this tipping point, then in London it's -20°C in three frozen months of the year and in Edinburgh it's -30°C in five and a half frozen months of the year."

• Tipping points are thresholds beyond which change becomes unstoppable. Once crossed, the climate can shift abruptly into a new stable state that is     extremely hard to reverse.
• The risk rises with every fraction of a degree. As global warming moves      beyond 1.5°C, the likelihood of triggering multiple, interacting tipping points increases sharply - with cascading effects.
• Some tipping points are already being crossed. Coral reef systems have      effectively tipped, threatening the livelihoods of about 500 million people and removing vital coastal protection worldwide from storm surges made worse by rising sea levels.
• The biggest risk for the UK is the failure of the Atlantic Meridional      Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This great ocean current keeps the      UK’s climate mild. It is already weakening and could tip at around 2°C      of warming.
• An AMOC tipping point would transform the UK into an unrecognisable place.     There would be winters of -20°C in London and –30°C in Edinburgh,  with Arctic sea ice likely to reach down as far as East Anglia. But there would also be hotter summers, combined with severe water shortages due to significantly lower rainfall. This would end large-scale agriculture in the UK.
• Near  2°C, the odds of crossing this tipping point are worse than Russian      roulette. By around 3°C, it becomes more likely than not.
• There is only one credible way to reduce this risk: accelerate to zero emissions      fast. The longer we linger above 1.5°C, the higher the danger.
• The good news is that positive tipping points exist. Clean technologies      and social change can also become self-reinforcing, driving rapid transformation - as the UK already proved by tipping coal out of power generation.
• Strong policy triggers tipping points. We need clear ambitious phase-out  dates for fossil fuels in cars, boilers, power and freight. We also need to activate market feedbacks that make clean options cheaper, faster and inevitable.

This is a race between two futures. Either we trigger positive societal tipping points toward a clean, prosperous system, or we gamble on dangerous climate tipping points we cannot control. 

  "Nature is critical national infrastructure. When we destroy it, we increase floods, heat deaths, food insecurity and economic instability. When we restore it, we reduce risk, save lives and strengthen the economy."

• The UK is one of the most nature-depleted countries on Earth. Only about 53% of our biodiversity remains; one in six species faces  extinction. This is a loss of vital functions — pollination, clean water, flood regulation - not just wildlife.
• Nature  loss is a national security and economic risk. Continued degradation      could cause a major economic shock - while leaving millions of homes      exposed to flooding and heat.
• Restoring  nature is one of the highest-return investments available. Wetlands, peatlands, hedgerows and urban trees cut flood risk, prevent heat deaths, protect food supplies, store carbon and create skilled jobs — at far lower      cost than rebuilding after disasters.
• We are still paying to destroy our own life-support system. Public      money and finance continue to subsidise pollution and ecosystem damage,      actively increasing long-term risk.
• The public is ahead of the Government. Most people want stronger action to  protect and restore nature - and the science shows we know exactly      what works.

  "We are pushing the climate far beyond the conditions that nurtured civilisation. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels are now higher than at any point in at least 800,000 years, and still rising every year.

• 2°C  of global heating is highly likely by 2050, and there’s a very real      possibility of 4°C by 2100.
• 3° to 4°C degrees of heating means the collapse of our systems. We would be      in an extreme and unstable climate, far beyond the safe zone that our      civilisation grew up in. We would face the widespread breakdown of      society, geopolitical instability, and the loss of any meaningful global      economy.
• If we keep burning fossil fuels, temperatures will keep rising. Cutting 'a      bit' is not enough: fossil fuels must be eliminated, or warming - and      risk - simply accelerates.
• There is now no viable way to stay below the world's target of 1.5°C. And at      current emissions rates, the world will use up the carbon 'budget' for      staying below 2°C in just 13 years . 
• Every single month we burn through another 0.7% of the remaining budget for 2°C.
• UK  ‘climate leadership’ is a myth. Once we rightly include aviation, shipping      and imports, UK emissions have fallen by only around 20% since 1990 - well under 1% a year - and our UK current plans claim three times our fair share of the remaining global carbon budget.
• Power  stations using carbon capture, blue hydrogen made from natural gas, and  bioenergy at Drax are delay technologies, designed to avoid effective      legislation, and keep polluters in business. After 30 years of promises, carbon capture and storage captures less than 0.03% of global fossil emissions. These technologies completely ignore substantial overseas  supply chain emissions (which can’t be captured), while locking in continued fossil fuel use at public expense.

 “This is the least extreme climate you will experience.Until we stop burning fossil fuels, extremes keep worsening - so we must cut emissions and build resilience now.”

• Extreme weather is not a future threat — it’s happening now. Europe has      already seen “mega” floods and lethal heat. The UK is not exempt.
• The UK is getting wetter in winter, and faster than models predicted. UK      winter rainfall is up around 10% since 1980. That is 7.3 billion cubic metres of extra water each winter, or about 3 million Olympic swimming pools. The trend is worryingly around 25 years ahead of global model projections.
• Flood  risk is becoming a national-scale issue. By 2050, 8 million properties (1 in 4) in England could be at risk of flooding. An event of  the scale of Storm Boris, which brought severe flooding to central Europe in 2024, would be a national crisis for the UK, with recovery taking years.
• Extreme summer heat is escalating fast - and it kills. The UK hit 40°C for the first time on 19 July 2022. This was linked to around 3,000  excess deaths. The Met Office puts the chance of another 40°C day next year at around 4% - and rising.
• Wildfire is now a UK risk, not just abroad. Hotter, drier summers are driving      fires on heathland, forests and city edges — with fire services increasingly stretched beyond capacity during extreme heat.
• Our infrastructure was built for a climate that no longer exists. Raised      reservoirs, drainage, housing and transport were designed many years ago      when extreme rainfall was rare and less severe. As rainfall intensifies, risks such as dam overtopping and cascading failures rise.
• The UK is not adapting fast enough. The Climate Change Committee’s      assessment is blunt: progress is too slow, with no sector outcome rated      “good”, and major gaps in governance, responsibility and funding.
• Adaptation is a “triple win” - and it pays back. Flood-absorbing parks, cooler      greener cities, better insulation and resilient infrastructure protect people, cut bills, improve health and create skilled jobs, as in Copenhagen, which reinvented itself as a 'sponge city' after devastating floods.

 "We have to be straight with people about the choices ahead, because if we don’t lead this change on the front-foot, we’ll be forced into it anyway as food shocks intensify."

• Food system failure is a direct national security risk. When food systems      break, the result is empty shelves, price spikes, unrest and political instability — and the UK is woefully unprepared.
• The climate that gave us reliable harvests is gone. Compound extremes —      heat, drought, floods and fires striking together across global breadbaskets — are becoming normal. For example, before climate change, a major corn harvest failure might happen once every 16 years, but at 1.5°C, this can be expected once every 3 years, and every other year at 2°C.
• The  UK is already feeling it. Three of the five worst cereal harvests on record have occurred this decade. Over 80% of UK farmers say climate change seriously threatens their livelihoods.
• We are dangerously dependent on imports. The UK imports 40–50% of its      food, much from climate-stressed regions like the Mediterranean. Extreme weather abroad now directly drives food prices and hardship at home.
• Rising  food prices are a social fault line. About one-third of food price      inflation in 2023 was driven by extreme weather. When families cannot afford food, societies destabilise.
• Our food system is undermining its own security. It is a major driver of      greenhouse gas emissions, habitat destruction, water and air pollution,      freshwater depletion, resistance to antibiotics and pandemic risk.
• A food system transformation is unavoidable - and beneficial. We must      shift to healthy, plant-rich diets, cut waste, improve production and make our farming methods more resilient.
• Switching to a plant-rich diet is the biggest lever for improving food security.     Animal agriculture uses about 85% of UK farmland. Moving to plant-rich diets could cut agricultural emissions by about 60%, free up an area of land almost the size of Scotland, and allow the  UK to feed more people from less land.
• A plant-rich diet is a win-win for people, farmers and nature. Health      improves, NHS costs fall, water and air quality improve, flood risk drops, rural jobs grow, and farmers’ incomes can rise if supported to deliver food, nature and climate security.
• The  choice is stark. Lead the transition now, or be forced into it later by food shocks, rising prices and instability.

  "I'm scared for my own life and future.

I'm absolutely terrified for that of my son."

• Dealing      with climate change is no longer about “risk” - it is about survival.     The health hazards are escalating so fast that they will impact the      survival of people alive today.
• The      evidence shows the situation is worsening year after year. The Lancet      Countdown tracks 20 indicators of the health hazards of climate      change. In the latest report, 12 of 20 broke records.
• The      real killer is the breakdown of our systems. Heat, floods and fires do      not just cause illness - they destabilise food supplies and economies. Without      a functioning economy and food security, you cannot run a health service.
• We      are already haemorrhaging economic capacity. Extreme weather is causing      financial losses at astonishing speed, and major economic loss means no      NHS, no education system and no resilience.
• Taking      action on climate change is the biggest health opportunity of our      lifetime. Policies on clean air, active travel, warm homes and      plant-rich diets will cut emissions and disease together, making      the NHS more sustainable.
• The      potential savings are huge. Tackling obesity alone could save the UK      around £126 billion every year.

Without action, the hazards are catastrophic. The climate emergency is a health emergency, and we must treat it as one. 

  "Our rules aren’t working - and it’s government’s job to change the rules when there are obvious market failures like this.”

• Economic transitions are disruptive but standing still is far more dangerous.     Every industrial transition creates winners and losers; clinging to the status quo delays change and increases risk.
• Today’s markets are broken. They assume a stable climate, clean air, fresh      water and functioning ecosystems - while rewarding businesses that damage      them and penalising those investing in resilience.
• This is a textbook market failure, and it is government’s job to fix it.  New rules must consistently reward lower carbon, restored soils, standing forests, circular resource use and reduced waste.
• Vested  interests are slowing the transition. Profitable fossil fuel and      extractive sectors lobby to protect the old system, just as the tobacco      industry once did - even though they could diversify.
• The  economics are clear: action is cheaper than inaction. The cost of      inaction massively outweighs the cost of action, even on cautious estimates.
• Net  zero is affordable, and it pays back. The UK investment needed is      around 0.2% of GDP per year, and would be largely funded by the private sector, with clear long-term returns.
• Faster transition is cheaper. Research shows a rapid energy transition saves $12      trillion globally compared to sticking with fossil fuels: more than twice the savings of a slow transition.
• Climate action cuts the cost of living. Inflation would have been significantly lower if we had decarbonised power, heat and food systems earlier; delay has already made households poorer.
• The best way to get other countries to act is for the UK to lead by example.     Acting early accelerates innovation, lowers costs worldwide and increases      the UK’s chance of being a high-value producer in future industries.
• The  test of success is simple. Policies can and must make households better off, reduce risk and build resilient businesses. The jobs then follow.
   

  “The input to renewable energy - sun and wind

- is free forever, while fossil fuel prices are set 

by cartels or the whim of dictators.”

• Fossil fuels are the root cause of energy price shocks. Around half of UK   recessions since 1970 have been triggered by fossil fuel price volatility - most recently forcing the Government to spend £64 billion, more than the defence budget.
• Millions of people are already in energy distress. Over 12 million UK      households are struggling to pay their energy bills - a direct consequence of our dependence on gas.
• Renewables offer permanent price stability. Sun and wind are free forever, unlike fossil fuels whose prices are set by geopolitics, cartels and conflict.
• Clean energy is now dramatically cheaper than before. In the last decade,      offshore wind costs have fallen by over 50%, solar by over 70%, and battery storage by over 80%.
• Electrification is far more efficient than using fossil fuels. The fossil fuel      system wastes around two-thirds of the energy it consumes; clean      electricity avoids this loss entirely.
• Upfront costs are a political choice, not a barrier. Upgrading the grid and      using heat pumps and insulation are merely growing pains - and delay only      increases total costs.
• Insulating homes is one of the fastest ways to cut bills. Yet the UK still has      some of the coldest, most heat-leaking housing stock in Europe.
• The jobs transition in energy is already happening. North Sea oil and gas      employment has halved, even with new licences..
• The UK has successfully upgraded its energys system before. It did so in a decade, changing its infrastructure to use North Sea gas instead of gas      from coal. 
• The prize from electrification is enormous. A renewable, electrified system delivers lower bills, energy security, good jobs and a just transition for households and workers alike.